Mr.
Kumar Mangalam Birla
Chairman, Aditya Birla Group
India Today: Cover Story
11 May 2009
The
global economic crisis is now in its third
quarter. The ebbing tide has dragged down
several boats that seemed rock solid barely
a year ago. The knock-on effect on India is
palpable. The RBI now expects the economy
to grow at around six per cent this year,
down from nine per cent just two years ago.
Our
stakes in returning quickly to a rapid growth
curve are high. These are not just in terms
of the GDP growth number and the sensex.
For us, high growth is imperative to lift
the vast number of people from conditions
of poverty, to ensure social infrastructure
and safety to our one billion-plus population,
and to provide gainful employment opportunities
to the growing number of our youth, who
will reach working age in the coming decade.
The
global economic climate is yet uncertain.
Some pundits are projecting a V-shaped rebound,
suggesting a quick revival after the deep
slump. If true, there are risks to such
a scenario.
Many
countries have released unprecedented monetary
and fiscal policy stimuli. The management
of these and withdrawal could
be a challenge. One cannot rule out disruptive
and volatile cycles in the markets.
In
such a scenario, we can expect little help
for our own growth curve from the global business
cycle in the coming years. That backdrop makes
it even more necessary to develop robust strategies
that will help India get back to the 9-10
per cent growth trajectory notwithstanding
the global scenario.
This is a challenge that our policymakers
and industry need to take head-on. Effective
responses to this challenge, in my view, could
be broadly clubbed into two buckets (though
not completely exclusive) short-term
damage-limiting responses and medium-term
growth-sustaining responses.
For
the short term, there are two issues that
need to be addressed the confidence
levels and compensating for consumption
shortfall with an aggressive push to investment.
The
new government that will emerge after the
elections will need to take immediate actions
for boosting confidence levels. It will
certainly help if the new government comes
out clearly with an economic policy package
that assures investors, industries and consumers
about the stability of the overall policy
direction.
It
could step up certain economic and institutional
reforms that will also act as confidence-boosters.
These could include a quicker transition
to a Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime,
push to the disinvestment programme, financial
market deepening, relaxation of labour laws
for certain employment-intensive sectors,
enabling long-term investments into equity
markets, encouraging development of markets
for municipal bonds and so on. Such announcements
could send a strong signal to everyone that
the new government is committed to high,
inclusive growth.
There
is also need to review trade policy dynamics.
Many countries have used tariff and non-tariff
barriers to protect their industry while,
on the other hand, there are concerns about
dumping by Chinese exporters in neighbouring
markets. These call for alert and flexible
policy responses so that efforts to revive
Indian economy are not harvested by other
economies.
The
second important leg of the short-term strategy
is to boost investments. Most projections
suggest that consumption spending may remain
somewhat subdued this year. For overall
growth, stepping up of the investment spending
is critical. This could include a variety
of measures, from short-term tax breaks
for big-tag greenfield investments to administrative
focus on clearing last mile hurdles for
large projects. One
quick-fire way continues to be a counter-cyclical
push to investment by the government itself.
The new government will need to continue
with the fiscal stimuli announced in December
and January. Although that could imply further
widening of fiscal deficit, it may be inevitable
in the short-term. Government spending could
be focused on infrastructure projects, including
rural infrastructure that will augment long-term
competitiveness of our economy. As growth
revives, the government could revert to
the path of fiscal discipline.
But
efficacy of these measures will require tactical
steps in creating room for credit and for
making money affordable. The RBI has taken
several steps in the last six months to ease
the pressure on liquidity and to bring down
the cost of funds. Despite these efforts,
lending rates have not come down proportionately.
This must be followed up. While western economies
have exhausted the option of using interest
rates to stimulate demand India still has
room to use this tool to boost growth. We
must not lose sight of this opportunity.
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Moving
on from short-term pain relievers to the sustainability
of high growth, it may be worthwhile to remember
that we have witnessed nine per cent-plus
growth for three consecutive years from FY
2006 till FY 2008. This was well supported
by a rise in savings rates to 35 per cent
of the GDP. The other contributors to this
phase included strong export growth and exuberance
about the India story within global
capital. Currently, we do not know if these
contributors will continue to stay with us
over the next three to five years. Bear in
mind the fundamental drivers in terms of favourable
demographics, high savings rates and improved
competitiveness of Indian industries give
us an edge. In fact, a sustained higher growth
needs to play upon these fundamental drivers
and unlock them wherever required.
We
will need to really explore some big-bang
plans of investment in physical infrastructure.
For instance, one can think of raising funds
for infrastructure investment through a bilateral
agreement with China to channel a portion
of its massive foreign exchange reserves.
China seems to be already concerned about
parking the bulk of its reserves in US dollar
assets. It may be time again to tap the savings
of NRIs. Part of these funds can be channelised
as equity contribution for public-private
core projects.
Besides
financing, large projects sometimes get
stuck into issues of land acquisition and
other clearances. The government could explore
creating a comprehensive and fair compensation
policy for land acquisition and a standard
operating process on clearance issues with
time bound resolutions, to avoid undue delays.
Social
infrastructure is as much, if not more,
important as physical infrastructure for
ensuring sustainable growth. Besides committing
more financial resources to social infrastructure
such as health and education, the government
may also look at governance issues to improve
the effectiveness of delivery of its services
in these areas. Also, the private sector
may be encouraged to partner in certain
areas; for example, technical education.
The
development agenda on the governments
priority could include delivery of minimum
nutrition to children, effective implementation
of the goal of universal primary education,
improving the quality and reach of healthcare,
making water and electricity available to
all, improving sanitation and drainage systems,
and putting in place economic safety nets.
Additionally,we
need to scout for sector-level enablers
that can create a big impact on investment
and employment, such as the implementation
of the National Mineral Policy to encourage
investment in mining sector, incentives
for increasing fertiliser capacities, supporting
Indian companies to acquire natural resources
(especially energy) abroad, creating a super-ministry
for transportation that can take a holistic
view of transport infrastructure and so
on.
The
downturn is possibly a reminder to us that
we still have an unfinished agenda with respect
to reforms, policies, infrastructure and institutions,
in case the good times made us complacent
about these issues. This may be the best time
to focus on all these issues so that we emerge
stronger when the economic environment takes
a turn for the better.
Prescription
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Continue
with the fiscal stimuli announced in
December and January |
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Use
interest rates to stimulate demand;
invest in physical as well as social
infrastructure |
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Boost
confidence with measures that signal
commitment to high, inclusive growth |
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